December 7, 2022

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Will Britain become a banana kingdom?

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Singapore moves away from the top of Milken Asia to the Formula 1 Grand Prix: Your authors woke up to F1 racing across town this morning as qualifying for Sunday’s race began.

Democratic Front – Brazil: Sunday’s other race could turn bad: Brazilians will vote in an election that will test the institutional resilience of the world’s fourth largest democracy. current president Jair Bolsonaro He threatens to cling to power no matter what voters say. He promised that “arrest, or death, or victory” was the only outcome. with the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a left-wing social reformer, is leading in the polls, Bolsonaro is not on his way to victory. Bolsonaro’s chance of wreaking havoc comes from two out of three Brazilians (per Gallup) Lack of confidence in the integrity of elections.

You are in good company – You’re reading the most influential media outlet for EU decision makers, according to 2022 EU media survey By BCW Brussels and Savanta Comres, it was announced Thursday.

Global investment outlook

We expected “we haven’t seen the bottom” of the market Rohit SipahimalaniS., chief investment officer of Temasek, Singapore’s $500 billion sovereign wealth fund, speaking at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. He said that the markets are still unable to price the next recession and the decline in profits.

“We are in the early stages” of inflation and in the “pre-recession” moment, said Bridgewater’s chief strategist. Jeff Gardner. In numbers, that means: “It’s not hard to imagine global stock markets dropping another 20 to 25 percent.”

SLAM UK Funders: You’ve heard of banana republics, but what about the banana monarchy system? supervisor Susan Leeof Fox Business, was moved to ask on the main Milken platform whether the UK is still investable, following market and currency trends that greeted the country’s latest mini budget.

When asked if Britain has become volatile and too similar to emerging markets, Gardner did not hesitate: “It would be an insult to emerging markets.” He added that while Britain does not control some of the factors that lead to the decline of its economy, such as energy shocks led by Russia, it is causing chaos in what it controls: “

A senior economist at a session moderated by Global Insider lamented that the British Cabinet appeared to be “losing its mind”. The Economist is releasing a section this week on the Prime Minister’s actions Les Truss‘ Team: “How do you not run a country?. “

Opinions about US and 2024 texts

With the midterm elections already underway for overseas voters, Global Insider led a group of mostly bankers and advisors (about half of whom were Americans) in a discussion about their expectations and concerns about the United States. The Chatham House Base.

midterm elections

“50 percent voted for Biden, but only 38 percent now approve of him. It’s hard to put together that 12 percent” to keep Republicans out of control of Congress.

Democrats have one obvious advantage: money.

Only 34% of Americans know the name ‘Inflation Reduction Act’.

“There are so many different animated variants. I have never seen anything like this” – from someone who has worked in every US election since 1988.

Counterintuitive Responses to Vice President Kamala Harris (Quotations from Various Individuals)

“She is the most authentic politician I have ever met. She swears more than me.”

I think there’s a good chance she’ll be president, and she’ll run [in 2024] From the Presidency “In the context of Biden’s blunders.” “There is only so long a time that you can ask a dead congresswoman to come and get a confession.” (context)

“in my opinion, Joe Biden He is chief because of Kamala Harris. He is chief because of four cities: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee. An additional 100,000 Indians or South Asians voted in Georgia, and Biden won by 11,000 votes. No one in Washington ever tells this story. This drives me crazy.”

“We’re in the Nixon, Carter, and Reagan cycle. Trump was Nixon – the unacceptable figure the elites had to get rid of. Biden is Carter – the president who wouldn’t have been elected except for what happened with Trump. We don’t know who Reagan is. maybe you can be Ron DeSantisIt can be the Democrat who wins decisively and takes the country from reeling one way or the other, and finds a compass to move the country forward.”

“The country wants to race the Newsom-DeSantis. But then Donald TrumpThe Republican candidate, Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate, 60 percent say they would support an independent candidate. opportunity to Emmanuel Macron For an independent – running and winning as in France will be there. Imagine Mansion Cheney.”

“The Independent doesn’t have to win. If you get 50 to 100 Electoral College votes, you may have a balance of power. The Electoral College can make a deal.”

dilemma: “Voter turnout is rising, and the level of discontent is entirely related to the level of participation.”

Julia Gillard – 10 years after the wrong letter

What has changed since then The speech that made then Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard world famous? “In many places around the world, we are now having the conversation we used to ignore,” she said at the Milken Summit.

Why women’s equality programs haven’t worked: Gillardthe only prime minister of Australia, said the reason behind this is the world After 136 years of gender equality Because most programs developed to address the problem either focused on changing women, rather than their environment, or did not extend to solutions tailored to a particular organization or location.

How does that look: Gillard said workplaces that reward attendance rather than results, penalize women “in the making of a family.” Male-dominated management selects men to join high-performance teams. Pervasive stereotypes that define impulsive men as “looking for the next opportunity,” while when it comes to women with the same characteristics, “people will say she’s too tough, she’s too boisterous, and too hard to handle.”

When avoiding bro culture is a rational choice: “Women are increasingly telling themselves ‘This isn’t a fair journey’ and asking ‘Why would I put myself through years of bro culture to try to get to the top?'” “They make other choices.”

Here’s the clue, you idiot: “You can only fix things if you can name them, see them, analyze them, categorize them, and then develop evidence-based strategies that will ultimately change them.” The thing that won’t work, Gillard said, is “send some top women to empowerment conventions, or think this is a trust issue.” You’ll never get equality if that’s the strategy you’re using. They are very common strategies.”

Company case study: Gillard described a litigation-based law firm that realized it was not promoting many women to the partnership, and explained the problem with the lack of women in high-profile cases. It turns out that this was because the company’s male partners were responsible for selecting teams for popular issues. In interviews, these partners admitted that they mostly chose people who reminded them of their younger selves – mostly younger men. The solution chosen by the company: hiring an outsider who was not a partner to select teams, to ensure diversity in each case.

The captain who surprised Gillard: German Advisor Angela Merkelwhich surprised the Australian prime minister with a warm welcome in forums such as the G-20.

Most hated feature: “I’m not listening,” said Gillard, to a little cheerful laughter from the women in the audience. “I still go to predominantly male forums [and] Not being able to listen and respond instead of just saying what they want anyway – it frustrates me sometimes.”

inappropriate: Like Gillard – wearing Equality Now necklace – She left the stage, and was replaced by a three-person panel (managed by another man) on the theme “Leadership in a Transforming World: Impact and Progress”.

corridor lane

Singaporeans don’t like sanctions: Most Singaporeans hate Putin’s war on Ukraine, but since then the prime minister Lee Hsin Loong Announcing sanctions on Russia earlier this year, many of his compatriots were skeptical of the move.

According to several diplomats who have seen the government’s thinking, officials were surprised by the low level of support among the public. For Singaporeans, joining the sanctions was akin to choosing sides between the US and Russia: as with disputes between the US and China, Singaporeans are averse to choosing.

Lee felt the need to address the issue in his own country annual address to the nation On August 21, he said, “We can’t be vague about what we stand on.”

Domestic political danger to me more Young people are calling for change. “The current government is not doing a bad job at all, but young voters just want a taste of something new,” a Western diplomat told Global Insider on the sidelines of the Milken conference.

Overhard: “We could invite Pelosi” to an event in Taiwan, one laughing business executive told another, over glasses of frosty Coke in the third-floor lounge of the Four Seasons Hotel. Reply: “Yes, because she likes to go there a lot!”

What are we watching today – Putin’s speech: Russian President Russian President Vladimir Putin It was officially announced today that he is making an annex Four additional regions in Ukraine after sham referendums were held in search of cover for the move earlier in the week. In a speech in the Kremlin prior to the publication of this newsletter, Putin called the annexation “the will of millions of people.”

Radio Free Europe has presented an introductory book He accepted the “massive” speech – citing Russian media reports that as many as 260,000 citizens have since fled the country. Putin announced the so-called partial mobilization On September 21.

quotable

If anyone in Russia at least including Putin made any meteorological, the winds would send the radioactive material back to Russia. … he cannot afford to cross radioactive materials across his borders.”
– Chairman of the Senate for Foreign Relations Senator. Bob Menendez (DN.J.) On Putin and nuclear weapons, he spoke as he emerged from a classified briefing before Putin’s speech.

Renewing the residence of the French ambassador in the capital: Work on The facade and ceiling of the French ambassador’s residence, one of Washington’s most popular entertainment venues, is being renovated. The headquarters, a 1910 Tudor Revival home, had been owned by France since 1936. Work is expected to be completed in May. A POLITICO spokesperson declined to tell POLITICO Daniel Lippmann The cost of the project.

Confirmed: Former figure skating champion Michelle Kwan He is the new US ambassador to Belize.

Short reading: Janan Ganesh write about it Les Truss Learn the hard way that Britain is not America, and that Reagan can’t function without the US dollar In the back pocket of one’s politics. “It’s kind of patriotic, I think, to mistake your nation for a great power.”

long reading: Why do American basketball players still sign up to play in Russiaby Jonathan Abrams.

Overview: John Lee Anderson Profiles of the Prime Minister of EthiopiaAnd the Abi AhmedAnd the His quest to transform his country into a modern nation resulted in a Nobel Peace Prize and a humanitarian crisis.

Audio notation: Today, The Economist launches an eight-episode podcast series on Xi Jinpingpast “the prince,” sponsored by So Lin Woong.

Book: “The Servants: The Hidden Power Behind the Crown” by valentine’s day lowpublished by Headline Books on October 6 extract editor Published by The Times of London

Thanks to Editor Heidi Vogt and Producer Hannah Farrow.

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