If such an uprising occurs, it will be much less deadly and destructive than the state endured in the winter, when more than 22,000 Californians died between Thanksgiving and the end of January, when the state closed for several months.
The vast majority of unvaccinated people carry the burden of the disease, which accounts for more than 99% of hospital admissions and deaths, and the trend is expected to continue.
New cases have risen slightly among those vaccinated over the past few weeks, and now there are only under 1 case per 100,000 vaccinated people per day. But they have increased among those who have not been vaccinated, down from about 3 cases per day per 100,000 people a month ago, to 5 cases per 100,000 people now.
“We really need to move the dial about vaccines,” said Dr. Erica Bonn, the state epidemiologist, during a meeting with the California Medical Association on Tuesday.
Ban noted that all measurements of the epidemic – including cases, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and deaths – were slightly lower than before the state reopened on June 15. “So we have a lot of runways,” he said, even though the spread is now increasing across the state to control the spread.
But the reopening of the state coincided with the introduction of the delta variant in California, which is leading to faster progress in events than expected. The fourth meeting in July may have contributed to the rapid increase. “Do we think it’s as catastrophic as last winter? It seems unlikely,” Bonn said. “But we were able to see two-thirds of what we saw last summer.”
California averages 2,000 cases a day – more than twice as many since the beginning of June. During last summer’s uprising, the number of cases rose to about 9,600 a day. Hospital admissions have risen by about 78% in the past month to less than 1,600 as of Monday. About 7,000 people were hospitalized during the summer peak.
State Epidemiologist Dr. Erica Bonn with the California Department of Public Health at a news conference at Auckland College on March 11 in Auckland.
Santiago Magia / The ChronicleLos Angeles County has recently announced particularly complex spikes, with more than 1,000 lawsuits for five consecutive days. The county has not had more than 1,000 cases a day since the beginning of March.
On Tuesday alone, San Francisco registered 153 new cases, according to Chronicle data monitoring, which said city officials did not represent the actual total for the day and that there may be expired cases. About 30 cases a day were reported in the city last week, doubling from the previous week.
Many Bay Area districts have doubled cases in the past week or two.
“The numbers outside of LA are very worrying, but the numbers in the Bay Area, especially in districts with low vaccination rates, are very worrying,” said Dr Kirsten Pippins, deputy dean of population health and health equity at UCSF. -Domingo said. “It’s hard to be completely depressed. We are only a month from the full opening. ”
Alameda County Health Officer Dr. Nicholas Moss said he expects cases to increase after the government reopens, but this is not happening quickly. “My biggest concern is that it will get worse before it gets better,” he said. “We have not yet reached the peak with this summer’s wave. But it is my hope that we will not see the impact of the serious disease from vaccination.”
Climbing cases are triggering renewed urgency to increase the speed of vaccination across the state, especially among young people with lower rates than the elderly and generally driving the spread of the disease in previous surgeries. 80% of adults aged 50 to over are vaccinated at least partially statewide, compared to only 66% of 18- to 49-year-olds and 43% of 12- to 17-year-olds.
In general, black and Latin Californians also have lower vaccination rates compared to white and Asian residents.
Public health officials say it now takes more time, effort and patience to motivate people who have not yet been vaccinated to get the shots. Because delta variation can lead to the spread of disease very quickly and easily, they run out of time to protect those individuals.
“The vaccination game is slow now, but people are still getting vaccinated every day,” Pipins-Domingo said. “Right now, the urgency of the high events we see makes us think about what we have at our disposal.”
Ban and other officials have said they want to avoid a return to strict public health restrictions, including another global mask order. Those who are not currently vaccinated are required to wear masks at home, but the rule is often not enforced.
The government announced this week that all K-12 students, even those who have been vaccinated, will need masks when they return to class. This decision was made to some extent in the light of increasing case numbers and keeping pace with delta variability.
“Of course at high levels of social dissemination, it makes sense to have a global mask,” Bonn said, however he suggested that another statewide mandate be on the horizon. “If you are in a high-risk setting, it is safe to cover it up. It is very easy to do. This is one of the most effective and least disturbing tools we have. ”
Erin Alde is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: [email protected] Twitter: erinallday
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