December 7, 2022

Russian forces are concentrated on the border with Ukraine. West worries it’s not like last time.

Some People, if anyone, Outside of Putin’s inner circle he knows what he’s planning. Analysts say this could be another attempt To gain influence over Ukraine, And a warning to the West not to interfere in the Kremlin’s strategic and spiritual backyard. But some see war as impossible.

“We are deeply concerned by the evidence that Russia is planning significant aggression against Ukraine,” Foreign Secretary Anthony Blingen told a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Sweden on Wednesday. System.

“We do not know whether President Putin has decided to invade,” he said. “If he decides, we know he’s capable of doing so in the short term.”

A day earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had warned that Russia would pay a “high price” if it invaded.

Flinken is scheduled to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday as part of an OSCE meeting in Stockholm. Flinken also meets with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

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Such infiltration is not imaginary. In 2014, Russia invades Crimea on the Ukrainian peninsula, When separatists support the fight A war in eastern Ukraine It killed 14,000 lives.

Russia’s commitment to Ukraine It is about nationalist sentiment as it is about strategy. In July, Putin released Essay with 5,000 words They argue that Ukraine is a part of “historic Russia” and that the two countries are “essentially the same historical and spiritual place”.

Putin Called before The collapse of the Soviet Union, of which Ukraine was a part, was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to questions about his article entitled “Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.”Sputnik / Reuters

Russian officials have denied that they were planning an invasion, saying the troops were being sent for military training. The Russian Foreign Ministry, which had previously criticized NATO for military exercises in the neighboring Black Sea, on Wednesday accused Ukraine of sending 125,000 troops to the border.

These tit-for-tat transactions are common. But Putin’s rhetoric has changed. Previously, he has Ukraine opposes joining NATO, Something that the country has wanted to do for many years but has faced Opposition from the coalition, Says Kiev has not done enough to combat domestic corruption.

On Tuesday, Putin said he had new “red lines” – Washington and its allies should not deploy missiles capable of striking Moscow in Ukraine. “What should we do in such a situation? Then we should create something similar,” he told an investment forum in the Russian capital.

This is not about Ukraine joining NATO anymore, “said Vladimir Frolov, a foreign policy analyst in Moscow. Russia is trying to prevent Ukraine from becoming a “NATO aircraft carrier”.

The United States has provided $ 2.5 billion in aid to Ukraine’s military since 2014. Anti-tank Javelin missiles are the most important weapons.

Still, Putin is acting from a relative strength position. Constitutional changes in April removed Russia’s usual deadlines and Will be allowed to rule until 2036. His domestic approval rating, which was high after the invasion of Crimea, is now low, but still in the 60s. According to the Lovada-center, An independent Russian commentator.