February 8, 2023

CNN Poll: Warnock has narrow edge over Walker in final undecided Senate race


In A final undecided Senate race In 2022, the Democratic Senate. Georgia’s Raphael Warnock has a narrow lead over Republican Herschel Walker in Tuesday’s runoff election. A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

The poll shows Walker faces widespread questions about his integrity and suffers from a negative favorability rating, while nearly half of his supporters say they vote more against Warnock than for Walker. Voters’ modestly positive views of Warnock and a solid base of supporters appear to embolden the incumbent in the new poll.

Overall, 52% of voters say they plan to support Warnock in Tuesday’s runoff, while 48% say they will choose Walker. Partisans on both sides are deeply entrenched, with nearly all Democrats (99%) behind Warnock and 95% of Republicans backing Walker. Independents were outvoted 61% to 36% in favor of Warnock, but a relatively small turnout of 17% compared to 24% in a CNN exit poll in the first round of the race last month. (Warnock Finished short in front (to avoid a runoff without Walker’s majority in November.)

White voters are broadly behind Walker ahead of Tuesday’s election: 69% back him in a new poll, 30% back Warnock, while black voters who can vote next week are unanimous in their support for the Democrats (96% Warnock). 3% up to Walker). Those divisions resemble the racial divide in the 2021 runoff During this Warnock won his place early on, 93% of black voters supported him, while 71% of white voters supported his Republican opponent, Chen. Kelly Loeffler, according to CNN’s exit poll.

There is a big age gap in the upcoming race, with voters under 35 behind Warnock (74% to 25%), while those 65 and over break in Walker’s favor by 26 points (63% to 37%). Younger white voters are more closely divided than older white voters (52% of white voters under 45 say they support Walker to 48% for Warnock, while 75% of white voters 45 or older say they support Walker). Support for Warnock is similar among younger and older black voters.

White voters without college degrees are heavily behind Walker — 83% favor him — while white voters with four-year degrees are closely split, 51% for Walker to 47% for Warnock. White women with degrees lean toward Warnock (53% Warnock to 44% for Walker), while white men with degrees break in favor of Walker (58% Walker to 42% Warnock).

Warnock’s supporters are more likely to vote to support their candidate (83%) than to oppose Walker (17%), but it’s a more mixed bag among those who support Walker (52% say they support him, 47% oppose Warnock).

That difference, polls suggest, may be a factor in boosting turnout. The race between Warnock and Walker is the only race on the ballot in most of the state, and voters who say they are more likely to vote to support a Senate candidate than to oppose another candidate show a strong motivation to vote — 79% of voters say supporting their chosen candidate is the most motivating factor for their vote, compared to 69% who say they vote. They say one of the resistance.

There are several indications in the poll that negative views of Walker are also a drag on his chances.

Beyond the gap in staunch support behind each man’s candidacy, there is a big difference in the views of Warnock and Walker personally. Views of Warnock tilted narrowly positive, with 50% of voters holding a favorable view and 45% unfavorably, while Georgia voters held a more negative view of Walker (52%) than positively (39%).

Majorities say Walker is not honest and trustworthy — 59% feel that way, including 18% of those who say they plan to vote Republican. A narrow majority, 52%, say they believe Warnock is honest and trustworthy, and views of his honesty are closely linked to vote choice (93% of Warnock’s own voters say he is honest, 91% of Walker’s voters say Warnock is not honest). Walker has a wide lead among voters who say neither Walker nor Warnock are honest and trustworthy (they break down to 71% for Walker to 27% for Warnock).

Voters see Warnock as more suitable and qualified to serve as senator than Walker (52% describe Warnock as good, 27% Walker, and 21% say neither is qualified); as someone who effectively represents Georgia in Congress (50% Warnock, 41% Walker, 8% no); as having good judgment (50% Warnock, 33% Walker, 17% not); and as someone with the right priorities (49% Warnock, 43% Walker, 7% none). He won among 1 in 5 voters who say neither candidate is unqualified, 9 in 10 behind Walker (92%), and 8 in 10 among voters who say neither candidate has good judgment (82% say they will vote for Walker).

However, when asked directly about the candidates’ positions on issues or their character and integrity in their votes, 57% of voters said issues were the most important factor and 42% chose character and integrity. Of those who say the issues are their top concern, 64% vote for Walker; On the character side, 74% favor Warnock.

Nearly half of voters say the economy is their top issue in this runoff (46%), while 17% say voting rights and election integrity are their top concern and 16% pick abortion as their top issue. Walker has 68% support among economy-focused voters, while Warnock is supported by a majority (79%) of those who call the elections and those more concerned about abortion (78%).

About half of likely voters (48%) say abortion should be legal under most circumstances (37% should be legal under any circumstances, 11% under most circumstances), while 52% say it should be. Illegal in some circumstances (39%) or illegal in all circumstances (13%). The issue sharply divides voters: voters who think it should be legal in most or all cases support Warnock, 88% for him and 11% for Walker, while those who say it should be legal only in some cases. Or illegal in all circumstances are behind Walker – 82% support Warnock to 18%.

After a long legal battle over when early voting is allowed ahead of the runoff election, Georgia voters mostly think the rules surrounding voting on the ballot are in order. 1 in 5 say the rules made voting too difficult (21%), a smaller share made it too easy (14%) and two-thirds say the rules are perfect (66%). Liberals (47%), voters who see voting rights and election integrity as a top issue (39%) and Democrats (38%) are more likely to say the rules have made voting more difficult.

President Joe BidenA November CNN exit poll of Georgia voters who voted in the first round of this Senate race (41% approve, 58% disapprove) but both Biden and his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, are viewed negatively in Georgia. In the new poll, 41% have a favorable view of Biden and 52% have an unfavorable view, while views of Trump are split at 39% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from November 25-29 in Georgia using a combination of online and telephone interviews. The survey samples were originally drawn from two sources, a probability-based online panel and a register-based sample. Respondents were initially contacted by mail, telephone or email. Results for the full sample of 1,886 registered voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Voters may be identified through a series of questions about voting intention, interest and past history. Results from 1,184 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.