December 6, 2022

China is not going to invade Taiwan. But both sides are on a dangerous path

At the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the former nationalist government fled and fled to the island of Beijing.

But that does not mean there is no reason for warning.

Beijing has been accumulating military, economic and diplomatic pressure on its long-term target of “one China” – the only country that includes the island – Taiwan.

Experts worry that if the Chinese Communist Party leaders do not believe in peaceful “unification”, they may turn to more drastic measures to achieve their ambitions.

China’s ‘red lines’

In the first five days of October, More than 150 aircraft China’s Liberation Army Air Force has entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, and the area around the island, Taipei says, will respond to any intrusion.

The maneuvers began on October 1, China’s National Day, a natural moment to commemorate the founding of the People’s Republic and to establish a military position. But that was not the only reason for the record-breaking exercises — they closed the months-long escalating tension between China and Taiwan.

Experts say two things are to blame for the deterioration of relations – Taiwan, which is increasingly firm and confident. Relations between Taipei and Washington and domestic Chinese politics were fueled by warming.

Although Taiwan and China have been governed separately for more than 70 years, Beijing considers the island of Democracy, with a population of 24 million, to be part of its territory, and Taiwan continues to pursue the goal of “reunification”, even though it has not always been ruled by the Chinese. Commonwealth.

To try to force Taiwan’s hand, Beijing has been trying to isolate the island for the past 40 years with the support of its diplomatic allies – Taiwan now has full diplomatic relations with just 15 countries.

But despite Beijing’s best efforts, Taiwan has gained more global influence since the beginning of 2020.

Sino-Taiwan tensions raise fears of conflict.  In Taipei, however, people don’t seem to care
Countries around the region are defending Taiwan’s sovereignty as never before. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi told CNN that Tokyo would “respond accordingly” to any attempt by China to seize Taiwan by force. Strong ties with the island.
Support extends beyond the Asia-Pacific region. In September, for example, Lithuania became the first European country in decades to allow Taiwan to pursue a diplomatic mission. In its own name.
Taiwan’s close ties with the United States have encouraged it on the world stage. Under the Trump administration in 2020, Taiwan welcomed its highest U.S. audience in decades, and to the frustration of Beijing, the Biden administration That trend has not changed.

Senior Fellow, Taipei, Taiwan, a global organization. Michael Cole said rising tensions between the United States and China also helped boost Taiwan’s profile.

“Taiwan feels that the international community has a little more room for Taiwan and understands more about the role that Taiwan should play as a liberal democracy in this growing ideological conflict,” he said.

More than a preface Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia program in the United States, said the invasion, increased Chinese flyovers were a sign of Beijing’s frustration and a reminder to Taiwan and the United States not to cross China’s “red lines”.

He said those red lines could trigger a military expansion from Beijing, the campaign for Taiwan’s independence or the decision to send large numbers of U.S. troops to the island.

“China wants to put Taiwan in a box and it uses more and more pressure against Taiwan … they want to intimidate Taiwan,” he said.

“China wants to put Taiwan in a box and it uses more and more pressure against Taiwan … they want to intimidate Taiwan.”Pony GlosserDirector of the Asia Project in the German Martial Fund of the United States

But Beijing’s audience is not only in Taiwan and the United States – it is also at home.

By putting pressure on Taiwan, President Xi Jinping is trying to increase support ahead of the 2022 Chinese Communist Party Congress. Xi’s second term is coming to an end, though it is almost certain He will continue as president.

Wen-ti Chung is a colleague at the Australian National University in Australia and the Australian Center in China (ANU) said it would seek Xi’s support ahead of a Communist Party meeting in November, where the list of candidates for the top post would be finalized.

A strong policy on Taiwan can determine how many allies he can hold in top positions for the next five years.

“In a moment like this, it is, in general, a good thing for the army commander to create the effect of a ‘rally around the flag’ to express nationalist sentiments,” he said.

The Communist Party has key priorities in the coming year that will dramatically complicate Taiwan’s invasion — the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and the immediate 20th Party Conference, which run smoothly in February.

China’s ‘peaceful reunification’ goal

One of the clearest signs of Beijing’s reluctance to invade Taiwan came from an unusual source – Shi.

In a speech on October 9, the Chinese president reiterated his will “Quiet Reunification” With Taiwan, it seemed that he was willing to wait for the island to volunteer.

“When I read what Xi Jinping had to say about Taiwan, I was shocked by the lack of urgency,” Glaser said.

Achieving the goal of a peaceful settlement on the Taiwan Strait makes sense – experts have long said that there would be no attempt to seize the island of Beijing by force. A big costly endeavor, With uncertain results.
In extensive war games conducted by the United States earlier this year, U.S. forces were able to thwart the 2030 simulated Chinese invasion of Taiwan – just. According to Security News, Exercises that are estimated to be a pyrethrum success with massive casualties.

But experts said it would be difficult to see what the path would be to Beijing’s integrated vision.

Support for Taiwan’s move toward “independence” will continue into the future, with China formally seceding from the mainland. The highest point in decades, According to a study by the Center for Electoral Studies at the National Chengdu University in Taiwan.

In June, a poll of 4,717 people in Taiwan found that 25.8% wanted to move towards independence, while less than 10% wanted “integration” with China’s mainland. The opinion of the majority was to stick to the present position.

The survey found that the sentiment towards independence has doubled since 2018.

“In light of the Hong Kong crisis, I think the call for peaceful co-ordination in the context of ‘one country, two organizations’ in Taiwan is very, very low.”Wen-D sangFellow at the Australian Center in China in the world at the National University of Australia

Sang attributed the rise to Beijing’s brutal treatment of Hong Kong, a major financial center promised 50 years of semi – autonomy. Management, Its civil rights were severely curtailed by Beijing After the big pro-democracy protests in 2019.

“In light of the Hong Kong crisis, I think the call for peaceful co-operation in the context of ‘one country, two organizations’ in Taiwan is very, very low,” he said.

Beijing has many reasons to believe that Taiwan will eventually unite with volunteers. Newly elected President of Taiwan Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Party, Erik Xu acknowledged that the mainland of China and Taiwan belonged to the same country. He has promised to restart communication channels with Beijing if KMT is elected in 2024.

The Taiwan invasion may be negative

Experts say the Chinese invasion of Taiwan will not come without any warning.

Prior to any military action against Taiwan’s main island, there may be an attack on Taiwanese-controlled islands in the South China Sea or international sanctions. Trade with the island, they said.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government is determined to put pressure on Taiwan.

China continues to oppose Taiwan’s involvement in any international forums, sometimes taking serious borders to block countries, including the island.

Even at the height of the epidemic, Beijing refused to allow Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization. Island Not part of China.
Taiwanese soldiers prepare grenades, machine guns and tanks during an exercise in preparation for the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan on September 16, 2021.
When the Taiwan membership problem came up At a meeting in MayChina’s ambassador to the UN, Chen Soo, has called for an end to “politicization of health issues and the use of Taiwan issues to interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

Both China and Taiwan have submitted applications to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership. Beijing has come out strongly against joining the Taipei deal.

Forms of economic coercion are also placed. Taiwanese fruit, including the country’s iconic pineapple Has been Banned from Chinese markets, the government says “Harmful Creatures” Can pose a life-threatening risk to the country.

But some experts say Taiwan has already passed the point of no return to Beijing and no “reunification” is possible, except for a massive change in the Communist Party’s position on civil liberties or China’s Taiwan.

The Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be a bloody, logistical dream

Cole, of the Taiwan Global Institute, said this could be a matter of great concern. If it becomes clear that there is no chance of unification, the Chinese president may seek drastic action if Xi’s reputation or seizure of power is in danger.

“At the time, I was afraid that if he had to prove to the Chinese people again that he was in control of the situation, he would be forced to take action against Taiwan,” he said.

Chung, from the ANU, said all diplomatic, economic and military coercion could backfire against Beijing and undermine its own purpose of “peaceful integration” with Taiwan.

Instead of creating a climate of fear and helplessness as thought, the Chinese Communist Party creates a strong identity and community for Taiwan, he said.

“You don’t need a genius to figure out how much of a shared experience you are highlighting. The more you emphasize Taiwan’s national identity, the less support you have for integrating with China,” Chung said.