China is not going to invade Taiwan. But both sides are on a dangerous path

But that does not mean there is no reason for warning.

Beijing has been accumulating military, economic and diplomatic pressure on its long-term target of “one China” – the only country that includes the island – Taiwan.

Experts worry that if the Chinese Communist Party leaders do not believe in peaceful “unification”, they may turn to more drastic measures to achieve their ambitions.

China’s ‘red lines’

The maneuvers began on October 1, China’s National Day, a natural moment to commemorate the founding of the People’s Republic and to establish a military position. But that was not the only reason for the record-breaking exercises — they closed the months-long escalating tension between China and Taiwan.

Experts say two things are to blame for the deterioration of relations – Taiwan, which is increasingly firm and confident. Relations between Taipei and Washington and domestic Chinese politics were fueled by warming.

Although Taiwan and China have been governed separately for more than 70 years, Beijing considers the island of Democracy, with a population of 24 million, to be part of its territory, and Taiwan continues to pursue the goal of “reunification”, even though it has not always been ruled by the Chinese. Commonwealth.

To try to force Taiwan’s hand, Beijing has been trying to isolate the island for the past 40 years with the support of its diplomatic allies – Taiwan now has full diplomatic relations with just 15 countries.

But despite Beijing’s best efforts, Taiwan has gained more global influence since the beginning of 2020.

Senior Fellow, Taipei, Taiwan, a global organization. Michael Cole said rising tensions between the United States and China also helped boost Taiwan’s profile.

“Taiwan feels that the international community has a little more room for Taiwan and understands more about the role that Taiwan should play as a liberal democracy in this growing ideological conflict,” he said.

More than a preface Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia program in the United States, said the invasion, increased Chinese flyovers were a sign of Beijing’s frustration and a reminder to Taiwan and the United States not to cross China’s “red lines”.

He said those red lines could trigger a military expansion from Beijing, the campaign for Taiwan’s independence or the decision to send large numbers of U.S. troops to the island.

“China wants to put Taiwan in a box and it uses more and more pressure against Taiwan … they want to intimidate Taiwan,” he said.

But Beijing’s audience is not only in Taiwan and the United States – it is also at home.

Wen-ti Chung is a colleague at the Australian National University in Australia and the Australian Center in China (ANU) said it would seek Xi’s support ahead of a Communist Party meeting in November, where the list of candidates for the top post would be finalized.

A strong policy on Taiwan can determine how many allies he can hold in top positions for the next five years.

“In a moment like this, it is, in general, a good thing for the army commander to create the effect of a ‘rally around the flag’ to express nationalist sentiments,” he said.

The Communist Party has key priorities in the coming year that will dramatically complicate Taiwan’s invasion — the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and the immediate 20th Party Conference, which run smoothly in February.

China’s ‘peaceful reunification’ goal

One of the clearest signs of Beijing’s reluctance to invade Taiwan came from an unusual source – Shi.

“When I read what Xi Jinping had to say about Taiwan, I was shocked by the lack of urgency,” Glaser said.

But experts said it would be difficult to see what the path would be to Beijing’s integrated vision.

In June, a poll of 4,717 people in Taiwan found that 25.8% wanted to move towards independence, while less than 10% wanted “integration” with China’s mainland. The opinion of the majority was to stick to the present position.

The survey found that the sentiment towards independence has doubled since 2018.

Sang attributed the rise to Beijing’s brutal treatment of Hong Kong, a major financial center promised 50 years of semi – autonomy. Management, Its civil rights were severely curtailed by Beijing After the big pro-democracy protests in 2019.

“In light of the Hong Kong crisis, I think the call for peaceful co-operation in the context of ‘one country, two organizations’ in Taiwan is very, very low,” he said.

The Taiwan invasion may be negative

Experts say the Chinese invasion of Taiwan will not come without any warning.

Prior to any military action against Taiwan’s main island, there may be an attack on Taiwanese-controlled islands in the South China Sea or international sanctions. Trade with the island, they said.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government is determined to put pressure on Taiwan.

China continues to oppose Taiwan’s involvement in any international forums, sometimes taking serious borders to block countries, including the island.

Both China and Taiwan have submitted applications to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership. Beijing has come out strongly against joining the Taipei deal.

But some experts say Taiwan has already passed the point of no return to Beijing and no “reunification” is possible, except for a massive change in the Communist Party’s position on civil liberties or China’s Taiwan.

Cole, of the Taiwan Global Institute, said this could be a matter of great concern. If it becomes clear that there is no chance of unification, the Chinese president may seek drastic action if Xi’s reputation or seizure of power is in danger.

“At the time, I was afraid that if he had to prove to the Chinese people again that he was in control of the situation, he would be forced to take action against Taiwan,” he said.

Chung, from the ANU, said all diplomatic, economic and military coercion could backfire against Beijing and undermine its own purpose of “peaceful integration” with Taiwan.

Instead of creating a climate of fear and helplessness as thought, the Chinese Communist Party creates a strong identity and community for Taiwan, he said.

“You don’t need a genius to figure out how much of a shared experience you are highlighting. The more you emphasize Taiwan’s national identity, the less support you have for integrating with China,” Chung said.