December 7, 2022

Brazil 2022 elections live: Lula heads to run-off with Bolsonaro | Brazil

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Tom Phillips

Tom Phillips

More on tonight’s score:

“I think Bolsonaro has the momentum,” said Thomas Truman, a Rio de Janeiro-based political observer, although he thinks Lula remains the favourite. “It’s a very disappointing night for the left.”

Bolsonaro is also accused of wreaking havoc on the environment and catastrophically mishandling the Covid epidemic that has killed nearly 700,000 Brazilians, by undermining vaccination and containment efforts and promoting quack drugs.

“It was a tragedy, a joke,” restaurant host Gabriela Leoncio said of Bolsonaro’s management as she voted for Lula on Sunday morning in Sao Paulo.

Despite this, Bolsonaro confounded the expectations of pollsters in several key states, including Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo.

Notable Bolsonaristas have been elected to Brazil’s Congress and state governors, including Bolsonaro’s former health minister, Eduardo Pazuelo, who became a congressman for Rio, and former environment minister Ricardo Salles. Bolsonaro’s supportive governor of Rio, Claudio Castro, has been re-elected, while one of the more controversial former ministers, evangelical preacher Damaris Alves, has taken a seat in the Senate. Tarcisio de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s candidate for governor of Sao Paulo, has also performed better than pollsters expected and will face Lula ally Fernando Haddad in the second round.

Lula and his allies were challenged with the successes of the Right and a second round was needed.

Lula wins the vote, but not outright

Tom Phillips

Tom Phillips

The intense presidential race in Brazil will take place a second round after the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva He failed to secure the overall majority he needed to avoid a run-off with the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

With 97% of the vote counted, the left-wing veteran received 47.88% of the vote, not enough to avoid the October 30 bid with his right-wing rival. Bolsonaro, who significantly outperformed pollsters’ predictions and will be boosted by the result, received 43.68%.

Speaking on the eve of the election, Lula said he hopes to win the first round, but will redouble his efforts to regain power if a second round is needed.

“I feel very hopeful that this election will be decided tomorrow, but if not, we will have to act as a football team when the match goes into extra time. We will rest for 15 minutes and then go back to the field to score the goals we did not score in time,” he told reporters. the original”.

The election result was a blow to progressive Brazilians who had been looking forward to a sure victory over Bolsonaro, the former army chief who has repeatedly attacked the country’s democratic institutions and ruined Brazil’s international reputation.

We’re almost there – at least Lula seems sure to win this round. But the run-off against Bolsonaro is virtually guaranteed by this point.

We will give you a letter to Lula tonight as it happens.

The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, is waiting to hear from Lola after a disappointing night.

With nearly 97% of the votes counted, we’ll likely know the result within half an hour.

We expect Lula to address the media soon once the election result is confirmed. A bleak night for the left in many ways, with Bolsonarista’s winning streak and tougher results than polls had predicted. The respondents said 50/36. Looks like it will end 48/43 pic.twitter.com/DVZCLxmjoe

– Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) October 3, 2022

Here’s some analysis of what’s happening tonight, via The Associated Press.

It seems increasingly likely that none of the two frontrunners in Brazil’s national elections will receive more than 50% of the valid vote, which excludes blank and spoiled ballot papers, meaning that a second round of voting will be scheduled for October 30.

“We will probably have a second round,” said Nara Pavao, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “The probability that the elections will end now (in the first round) is very slim.”

“The far right has shown great resilience in presidential elections and in state races,” said Carlos Mello, a professor of political science at the University of Inspire in São Paulo.

“It’s too early to go too deep, but this election shows that Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was not an obstacle,” he added.

Bolsonaro has outperformed in Brazil’s southeast region, which includes the populous states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, according to Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risks at Tendencias Consultoria, a consultancy.

“The polls didn’t reflect that growth,” Cortez said.

With the count almost complete, Lula’s victory in the first round looks far off, meaning he is likely to compete with Bolsonaro in the October 30 run-off election.

Lula’s victory in that round is by no means guaranteed.

Political economist Felipe Campante:

To my non-Brazilian followers: Make no mistake about it, the prospects look more bleak for Brazilian democracy right now than they did 24 hours ago. Bolsonaro will have a real chance of winning the replay, in which case we are in deep trouble.

– Philipe Campante October 2, 2022

Andrew Downey reports for the Guardian from São Paulo:

Two major councils in southern Brazil win the post of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. In the state of Paraná, Sergio Moro won the election with 33.6% of the vote, and in Rio Grande do Sul, Hamilton Moro also won with 44.3%.

Mourao, a former army general, was Bolsonaro’s vice president, while Moro was the judge who led the car wash investigation that led to Lula’s imprisonment in 2017.

Eye of Bolsonaro Moreau as Minister of Justice But his image as a crusader against corruption was damaged when more high courts overturned his decision to imprison Lula and release the former president.

that Investigation by Intercept Show that Moreau colluded with prosecutors to damage Lula’s defense.

He tried to run for president but his campaign never took off and after back-and-forth talks with parties in at least two different states, he chose to run for the Senate in his state.

Meanwhile, Mourao defeated veteran Labor Party figure Olivio Dutra, the former governor of Rio Grande do Sul.

Lula is now ahead by about 4% – but has not received enough votes to avoid a run-off with Bolsonaro. The count is almost over.

My apologies – I got the math wrong in this last post (and I’ve now updated it). For Lula to win, he would need to win nearly all of the remaining votes, and not more than half of the remaining votes. It is highly unlikely that there will be no runoff.

We’re getting close to the end result – but it’s still unlikely that Lula will guarantee a complete victory. If he fails to get more than 50% of the vote, Brazilians will head to the polls again on October 30 for a run-off election.

It is still technically possible to win – he will need almost all the remaining votes.

With more than 90% of the votes counted, Lula is still ahead – now with more than 3%.

Runoff still seems like the most likely outcome. pic.twitter.com/meEgOYgIQV

– Helen Sullivan (@helenrsullivan) October 2, 2022

Who is Lola? A former shoe shiner, factory worker, and the man Barack Obama once described as “the most popular president on Earth.”

From my colleague Tom Phillips:

After winning in 2002 Brazil In the elections, Lula used the windfall from the commodity boom to help millions of citizens escape poverty and become a respected international statesman, helping Brazil secure the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics.

Lula left power in 2010 with approval ratings close to 90%. But the following decade was tough for the left and his party. The Workers’ Party has been embroiled in a series of sprawling corruption scandals and has been blamed for plunging Brazil into a brutal recession. Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached in 2016 in what many supporters called a political “coup”.

Two years later, Lula was imprisoned after being found guilty of corruption charges that were overturned last year, setting the stage for his sensational bid to regain the presidency.

Lola spent 580 days behind bars, during which time he was Far-right ex-soldier Jair Bolsonaro He was elected, ushering in an era of Amazonian destruction and international isolation.

But the veteran leftist appears to have used his prison time wisely, plotting what only a few years ago seemed like an unimaginable return to the presidential palace in Brasilia.

On Saturday, Lula said he would hit the streets of Sao Paulo Election night to celebrate. He said: “To rise from the ashes as we rose, is a reason for great joy and great celebration.”

With more than 80% of the vote counted, Lula has gained somewhat in his lead over Bolsonaro.

But it seems unlikely – although not technically impossible – that he will get more than the 50% needed to win outright and avoid a runoff.

The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips reported from outside the Lula Hotel, where his lead over Bolsonaro was recently announced:

There were scenes of joy outside the Lola Hotel where the news was spread. “I feel inexplicable emotion. Make Lula president again,” said Lilian Carvalho, a 41-year-old activist who wears a red cap emblazoned with the slogan.

Carvalho said she was convinced Lula was headed for the first round. But Brazil’s chief pollster, DataFolha, now expects the presidential election to take place in a second round on October 30.

A supporter of President and former presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts to a gathering of people after polls close in the presidential election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 2, 2022.
A supporter of President and former presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts to a gathering of people after polls close in the presidential election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 2, 2022. Photograph: Amanda Perubelli/Reuters

Datafolha poll predicts runoff

Polling firm Datafolha predicts that the election will go into the second round on October 30, meaning Lula will have failed to get more than 50% of the vote in this round – a surprising result given the prior poll that showed the left wing. The candidate most likely to win comfortably.

If you just joined us, Brazilians voted on Sunday in a deeply polarized election that could determine whether the country brings the left back into the helm of the world’s fourth largest democracy or keeps the far right in office for another four years.

With 70% of the votes counted, the frontrunner and former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party were ahead of the current far-right president. Jair Bolsonaro.

The winner needs to get more than 50% of the vote to avoid a re-election. If the election goes to a runoff, it will be held on October 30.

Recent polls have given da Silva (better known as Lula) the lead. The latest Datafolha poll published on Saturday found that there is a 50% to 36% advantage for da Silva among those intending to vote. She interviewed 12,800 people with a margin of error of two percentage points.

Lula takes the lead after 70% of the votes have been counted

After the first hour of counting – and with another tense hour or so – leftist candidate Lula outperformed Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential election.

Lula currently receives 45.74% of the vote against 45.51% for Bolsonaro.

Tom Phillips The Guardian reports from outside the Lula Hotel in São Paulo:

We expect Lula to beat Bolsonaro any minute now – but that doesn’t mean it’s over. Lula needs more than 50% to win outright – less than that, and he will have to fight Bolsonaro in a run-off later this month.

Polls had predicted an outright victory for Lula, but a run-off now appears to be possible.

In order to announce the winner, a presidential candidate in Brazil He needs to get more than 50% of the vote.

Polls on the eve of the election indicated that Lula – who ruled from 2003 to 2010 – was dramatically close to securing the overall majority of votes he needed to avoid a second-round run-off against Bolsonaro in late October. One survey gave Lula 51% to Bolsonaro’s 37%, and another gave them 50% and 36%, respectively.