December 10, 2022

Another key Senate race swings toward the GOP in the Election Forecast Update

If the two parties split the “toss up” races evenly, Republicans would still win a one-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats are banking on the unpopularity and lingering influence of some Republican candidates to weather an increasingly difficult political environment for the party in power.

In addition to four gubernatorial races and 13 House races, New Hampshire is one of only three Senate races to change in our latest estimates — nearly all of the changes going in the Republican direction. The political climate is swinging toward the GOP in the final days of the race.

Here are three key takeaways from the latest ratings update:

New Hampshire is committed to the game, with Washington State on the board

In addition to moving New Hampshire to a “toss up,” two other races are moving in the Republican direction: Sen. Marco Rubio He has solidified his lead in Florida, and despite facing a well-funded challenge from a Democratic representative, his race is shifting from “lean Republican” to “lean Republican.” Val Demings.

And the Senate race in Washington state has become very competitive. Democratic Sen. Grandma Murray Still the favorite, but Republican Tiffany Smiley — who outspent Murray in the race’s final month — has been placed. The competition is moving from “potential democracy” to “lean democracy”.

Although the polls have tightened in Washington, Smiley is still hampered by the state’s partisan tilt. In the August primary, Murray (52 percent) and the Democratic candidates combined for more than 55 percent of the vote. The political climate is great for Republicans right now, but it’s a steep hill to climb.

In moving to “toss up,” New Hampshire joins five other states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Yet not all of them are pure coin flips. She has a slight edge over Hassan in the race Like GOP Sen. Ron JohnsonA modest advantage in Wisconsin. Several public polls this week showed Johnson still leading Democrat Mandela Barnes.

Like Arizona, which moved to “toss up” last week, New Hampshire has been tight despite some national Republican groups pulling out of the state.

But in the absence of the top GOP super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, several ideological groups like Steve Wynn’s funded Our American Century ($2.9 million in ads) and Sentinel Action Fund ($1 million) have filled the gap. A partner organization of Heritage Action, an advocacy organization affiliated with the Heritage Foundation.

New York Governor Leanne switches to the Democratic Party

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is still the favorite to win her race for a full term, but is a Republican. Lee Seldin A furious charge is building in the final weeks of the race. New York, which has been sitting at “Potentially Democratic” since election forecasting began, is moving a step closer to “Lean Democratic.”

Seldin’s focus on crime has proven powerful — polls rate it as their most pressing issue over any other topic — but he’s still running as an ally of former President Donald Trump and an opponent of abortion rights in New York state.

Still, the race at the top of the ticket is causing some closer-than-expected competition Akita Voting for the New York Democratic Party. Three of the 12 House races that swing Republican are in New York.

The other three gubernatorial races moving Republican are in states where Democrats expected to contest earlier in the cycle, but where GOP incumbents have commanding leads: New Hampshire, Ohio and Vermont each move from “Republican” to “solid Republican.”

GOP ends up with House majority

Republicans now hold 215 House districts — just 3 shy of a majority.

Two races previously rated as a “toss up” are now “lean Republican”: Colorado and a newly drawn open seat in Democratic Representative Cindy OxnayRace in Iowa. Most polls in Axne’s district show an even race — including a publicly released internal poll from Republican Zach Nunn’s campaign — but undecided voters are expected to swing against the incumbent.

Meanwhile, four races previously rated “lean Democratic” are now in the “toss up” category: seats held by delegates. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, with an open seat in western Long Island held by retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice (DNY.)

Republicans played late Maloney seat. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, spent $8.8 million this year — mostly in the final three weeks — to oust the chair of House Democrats’ campaign committee.

Unlike other districts that have seen last-minute spending sprees, Maloney’s seat is a “toss up” — neither he nor Republican Mike Lawlor are significant favorites.

In other places that will change in this update, late spending has made them more competitive, but Democrats have maintained an advantage.

representatives. Julia Brownlee (D-Calif.), Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Joe Morrell (DN.Y.) All went from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic” with an open seat in Pittsburgh, where Democratic candidate Summer Lee faces late spending and a chaotic situation by AIPAC’s new super PAC. on the ballot. His GOP opponent, Mike Doyle, shares the same name as the district’s retiring Democrat.

One race shifted toward the Democratic Party: GOP Rep. Steve Chabot Now the underdog to win re-election in his Cincinnati-based district. That race is moving from “toss up” to “lean Democratic.”