July 4, 2022

2022 NFL Draft: What the past decade says about the transition to quarterback, plus some commercial assumptions

2022 NFL Draft: What the past decade says about the transition to quarterback, plus some commercial assumptions

The 2022 NFL draft lacks the quarterback plot that last year’s tournament brought. The reason is that at least one midfielder will be taken in the first round, but it would be surprising if more than three players find their way to the first day.

Should the Steelers or another team want to trade, CBS Sports looks at previous deals to hypothesise what it might take to smooth the move up to get the quarterback. Pip spreads were determined by a trade value chart arranged by SportsLine RJ White.

Over the past 11 draft, 31 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round and there has been an average of one trade per year to take a quarterback in the top half of the round.

2021

San Francisco jumps to third off the board

49ers receive: No. 3 in general (Tree Lance)
Dolphin reception: No. 12 overall, No. 29 overall in 2022, No. 102 overall in 2022, and 2023 first-round pick
points difference: Dolphins +224.33

Bears move to Justin Fields

bears receive: No. 11 in general
Giants receive: No. 20 in total, No. 164 in total, No. 7 in total in 2022, No. 112 in total in 2022
points difference: Giants +342.83.70

2018

Planes move 3 points to land on Sam Darnold

receiving aircraft: No. 3 overall (Sam Darnold)
ponies received: No. 6 overall, No. 37 overall, No. 49 overall, 2019 second round pick
Indianapolis used the shots to select G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith and others.
Score difference: Colt +282.16

Billing deals with 3 choices in the top 60, select Josh Allen

Receipt of invoices: No. 7 in total (Josh Allen), No. 255 in aggregate
receive pirate: No. 12 overall (Vita Vea), No. 53 overall (MJ Stewart), No. 56 overall
Score difference: Pirate +101.21.37.40

Cardinals captures franchisee Josh Rosen

Cardinals receive: No. 10 overall (Josh Rosen)
Raiders receive: No. 15 in total (Colton Miller), No. 79 in total, No. 152 in total
Score difference: Raiders +0.17,000

2017

Bears make a terrible move for Mitchell Trubesky

bears receive: No. 2 overall (Mitchell Trubesky)
49ers receive: No. 3 overall, No. 67 overall, No. 111 overall, 2018 third round
San Francisco converted the third pick into DE Solomon Thomas. Pick No. was used. 67 on RB Alvin Kamara, but the rights were traded to the Saints.
Score difference: 49ers +45.51

Earth Leaders Generational Talent in Patrick Mahomes

receive heads: No. 10 overall (Patrick Mahomes)
Receipt of invoices: No. 27 overall, No. 91 overall, first-round pick of 2018
Buffalo chose CB Tre’Davious White after a re-trade but also came at the expense of Mahomes’ selection.
Score difference: Billing +104.47.007

Passing Brown’s chance at Deshaun Watson

Texas receive: No. 12 overall (Deshaun Watson)
receive brown: 25th overall, first round pick of 2018 (No. 4)
Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield took over the following year. Brown chose CB Denzel Ward and S. Gabriel Peppers, who were used in Odell Beckham Jr.. Trade, with selections obtained from Houston, but Watson’s value easily supersedes those extras.
Score difference: Brown +377.26.37.26.26

2016

Rams become aggressive by swapping Jared Goff

Rams’ reception: No. 1 in total (Jared Gough), No. 133 in total, No. 177 in all
titans receive: No. 15 overall, No. 43 overall, No. 45 overall, No. 76 overall, 2017 first round pick, 2017 third round pick
Tennessee’s pick from Los Angeles was No. 5 overall the following year. The Titans used shots in turn to fundamentally reconfigure their attack: OT Jack Conklin, RB Derrick Henry, WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith. Conklin was the result of the team trading as a reserve.
Score difference: Titans +68.42.87.2009

Browns Punt has a chance to fill a quarterback’s need

Eagles receive: 2nd overall (Carson Wentz), 2017 4th round pick
receive brown: No. 8 overall, No. 77 overall, No. 100 overall, 2017 first round pick, 2018 second round pick
Cleveland is back in circulation and has acquired WR Corey Coleman. The return on Wentz was very poor.
Score difference: Brown +176.89.89.89.89

2012

Washington Mortgages Futures for RGIII

Washington receives: No. 2 overall (Robert Griffin III)
Receive St. Louis Rams: No. 6 overall, No. 39 overall, 2013 first round pick, 2014 first round pick (No. 2)
St. Louis got second overall in the next draft but used it on OT Greg Robinson. In 2013, they were back in circulation again choosing DL Michael Brockers and later adding CB Janoris Jenkins with a pick from Washington.
Score difference: Rams +782.54.2007
Based on the trade value chart, the point spread provided by Washington equated to No. 2 overall, No. 20 overall and No. 182 overall. At the end of the day, it might have been worth it if Griffin had built on his Rookie of the Year campaign and had a thriving career.

2011

Jaguars go from David Garrard, select Blaine Gabbert

Jaguar receive: No. 10 overall (Blaine Jabert)
Washington receives: No. 16 in total, No. 49 in total
Washington traded back in 2011 and picked DL Ryan Kerrigan, who has been one of the most productive NFL racers for the past 10 years.
Score difference: Washington +35.8

In each of the 12 deals, the team trading the rights to the quarterback received more compensation from the selection equation. On average, the team trading in the top pick received a spread of +211,799 points, which equates to the 23rd overall pick. Teams that dropped last year received a higher than market cap. The cost of ascent this year may be lower with a less deep talent pool.

If the quarterback continued to be successful, it would have been worth it. Kansas City didn’t lose any sleep by getting the “worst” end of the deal, according to the trade-value scheme, but it still got Mahomes. Hindsight is 20/20 in some cases when trading future picks. It’s basically getting a loan on the team’s success. Some loans are in default, while others are paid off early. In three of the 12 deals, the team moved on to take the quarterback sent a top-5 pick in the next draft.

What does that mean for this year’s trade market?

To explore some hypothetical situations, let’s use Public Pick #7 in New York to create some trade shows. In this scenario, Carolina would still have the best litter pick in sixth overall if she chose to go center. Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert noted this on Monday The team explored the up and down trades on the board and explicitly mentioned #7 in general. The giants have been known to like to opt out of one of their picks for future draft capital as a result of not having enough space for salaries in 2021.

If future assets are included, the trading team has to give in more because of the unknown. An NFL team wouldn’t risk a bad run for a future first-round pick that could become a No. 32 overall when the trade value chart indicates that they should get a No. 16 overall equivalent in return. By inflating the price, there is a bigger window for them to look like they won the deal.

Steelers received: No. 7 in general
Giants receive: No. 20 overall, first round selection 2023, third round selection 2024
points difference: Giants +123.38.37.37
*Based on the 16th place selection in each upcoming round

Saints take: No. 7 in general
Giants receive: No. 16 in total, No. 19 in total
points differenceGiants: +83.82.002

If the team’s target quarterback is still available after sixth overall, they may be able to wait and trade the top teens like Chicago did last year with Justin Fields. Let’s use Houston in 13th overall to build those hypothetical deals:

Steelers received: No. 13 in general, No. 108 in general
Texas receive: No. 20 overall, first-round pick of 2023
points difference: Texas +163.09.003
*Based on the 16th place selection in each upcoming round

Saints take: number 13 in general
Texas receive: No. 16 in general, second round selection for 2023
points difference: Texas +67.21.70
*Based on the 16th place selection in each upcoming round